Famend pro-XRP lawyer, Jeremy Hogan, who has been on the forefront of offering insights into the Ripple vs. US Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) case during the last years, just lately shared an in depth breakdown of attainable outcomes within the ongoing authorized battle.
In his most up-to-date tweet, Hogan, identified for his in-depth YouTube video updates, acknowledged, “I’m seeing some confusion as to what may occur subsequent within the Ripple v. SEC case now that the Choose denied an interlocutory attraction. Sooo, I’ve outlined each risk and supplied the precise probability of every risk occurring and the way lengthy every would take. Precisely.”
Hogan elucidates that, following the unfavorable abstract judgment and the denial of the interlocutory attraction, the SEC finds itself in a precarious place with restricted favorable selections. Whereas the SEC nonetheless holds its proper to attraction, it could possibly solely train this selection after the case reaches its conclusion with a “remaining judgment”—a milestone doubtlessly far off on the horizon.
Situation #1 An Prolonged Battle With Uncertainties
The primary state of affairs Hogan tackles is the SEC’s choice to press ahead with a trial focusing on particular person defendants, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Ripple Govt Chairman Chris Larsen, slated for April 21, 2024.
Diving into the nuances, Hogan highlighted the potential pitfalls this path could current for the SEC: “The Choose has left solely the toughest a part of the case for trial. The SEC may simply take an ‘L’ at trial and have a few of its soiled laundry aired on the similar time.” If the SEC stubbornly sticks to this route, the timeline turns into stretched: an attraction isn’t anticipated to be filed till 2025.
Delving deeper, Hogan predicts that even after this ready interval, the appellate ruling may not materialize till 2026. In a state of affairs the place the SEC clinches an attraction victory, additional issues come up. The case would seemingly revert to Choose Analisa Torres for added authorized proceedings, doubtlessly deferring the last word decision till June 2027. Hogan locations the probability of this enjoying out at a (jokingly) exact 39.456%.
Situation #2: Settlement Adopted By Ripple Showdown
In Hogan’s second outlined state of affairs, he delves into the likelihood that the SEC may determine to achieve a settlement with the person Defendants earlier than striving to safe a remaining judgment in opposition to Ripple Labs, which might then be topic to an attraction. He assigns this state of affairs a chance of 32.113%.
Hogan notes, “That is the SEC’s best choice.” Nevertheless, his skepticism shines by as he provides, “For that motive, I doubt they do it.” By selecting this path, the SEC would speed up its journey to the appellate courtroom by roughly 9-12 months, saving appreciable sources and avoiding the complexities of an arduous case.
Following settlements with the person defendants, the main target would shift to “treatments” litigation, a section that Hogan factors out could be time-consuming. He estimates this litigation course of would stretch deep into 2026, pinpointing a possible finish date: “August 14, 2026, to be actual.”
Situation #3: A Holistic Settlement
Within the third state of affairs detailed by Hogan, he considers the prospect of the SEC choosing a complete settlement, encompassing each Ripple and the person Defendants. He mentions the feasibility of such a settlement occurring in a convention, doubtlessly one mandated by the Choose. Nevertheless, Hogan provides a be aware of warning, highlighting, “the SEC has proven little or no want to compromise up to now.”
From Hogan’s vantage level, the settlement seems to be an advantageous selection for the SEC. He articulates, “Settlement is an effective choice for the SEC. It will get to publish one other ‘win’ and acquire a giant test from the unhealthy guys.”
Including a dimension of judicial readability to this pathway, Hogan factors out that the Choose facilitated this selection by emphasizing that her verdict pertains solely to the particulars surrounding XRP. As for the chance of this state of affairs transpiring, Hogan pegs it at 18.987%.
In his meticulous breakdown, Hogan additionally permits room for unpredictability, conceding {that a} fully unexpected occasion may transpire, attributing to it an 8.675% probability.
Concluding his detailed insights, Hogan encapsulates the advanced dynamics at play: “On paper it’s a break up choice however the SEC has no good choices now. The facility stability shifted.”
At press time, XRP traded at $0.5168.
Featured picture from Coinmarketcap, chart from TradingView.com
